The ongoing conflict in Iran and its neighboring regions may be nearing its end, as indicated by US President Donald Trump, who is now seeking a resolution. This prolonged conflict has incurred substantial costs for both the United States and Israel in terms of military expenses, including missiles, troop deployments, warplane operations, and maintaining naval presence in the Arabian Sea. Despite these expenditures, the Iranian regime remains intact.
By halting the war now in hopes of positively influencing financial markets, Trump seems to acknowledge Iran’s strategy of imposing heavy financial burdens on the coalition and posing a threat to involve the Gulf States in a protracted and costly war. While Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly weakened, its leadership has become more resolute and uncompromising than ever. The decision on when to cease missile launches ultimately rests with Iran.
Motjaba Khamenei, aged 56, has succeeded his deceased father, Ayatollah Khamenei, and maintains close associations with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, despite enduring personal losses. Trump’s inconsistent communication throughout this conflict has exposed his lack of competence and understanding regarding the war’s initiation.
Initially signaling support to the opposition movement, Trump’s messaging evolved into a violent crackdown by the regime, resulting in significant casualties. The absence of tangible assistance for the opposition has diverted the attention of Iranian security forces, potentially leading to widespread security operations following a cessation of hostilities.
It is highly improbable that the US will commit ground troops for regime change, leaving the opposition unsupported and the regime unscathed, albeit more resolute in its stance. Despite Trump’s threats of severe repercussions if Iran obstructs oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, previous actions have already disrupted this vital route. The prospect of renewed conflict could perpetuate a cycle of attacks and retaliation over an extended period.
Both the US and Israel have incurred substantial financial losses in their attempts to instigate regime change in Iran, without achieving their objectives or dismantling Iran’s nuclear program entirely. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, has expressed aspirations for the Iranian people to overthrow tyranny, emphasizing the ongoing efforts to weaken the regime.
With Iran’s navy and air force weakened, and its ballistic missile program damaged, the war has not fulfilled its primary goals, aside from impacting the ballistic missile capabilities. Despite discussions of potential resolution, attacks on Iranian military facilities persist, hinting at a prolonged conflict. Trump’s contemplation of an exit strategy suggests a possible continuation of hostilities in the future.
As the conflict enters its twelfth day, Trump’s inclination towards withdrawal signals the war’s unpopular nature. The inconclusive outcome thus far raises the likelihood of an open-ended conflict, with the potential for escalating tensions and further military engagements in the foreseeable future.