Albertans are just 60 days away from responding to 10 questions that could influence the province’s future.
While nine of the questions focus on immigration and constitutional changes, the tenth question — regarding whether Albertans wish to remain in Canada or pursue a second, binding referendum on separation — is expected to energize town hall meetings and rallies in the approaching weeks.
With time running out, both factions face a challenge in swaying public opinion.
This task is not an easy one.
Keith Wilson, left, co-leader of the third-party advertiser Let Alberta Decide, and Thomas Lukaszuk, right, leader of Forever Canadian, are strategizing their next actions. (Nathan Gross/CBC)
Veteran pollster Janet Brown has been tracking public sentiment for years. Her findings consistently indicate that support for separation lags significantly behind those advocating for remaining in Canada.
“There has been minimal change in the data over the past eight years,” Brown remarked. “Currently, only about five to eight percent of people remain undecided.”
As a result, according to Brown, the referendum campaign is shifting from persuasion to mobilization.
“Turnout is essential for both sides,” she noted.
Numerous groups are vying for attention on either side of the issue.
Here’s how four of them plan to tackle the next phase of the campaign.
Let Alberta Decide
A leader advocating for independence noted that some campaign supporters have been reluctant to express their views publicly. He is not fully convinced of the polls’ accuracy.
“However, strategically, we are treating them as accurate,” said Keith Wilson of Let Alberta Decide. “We acknowledge the uphill struggle ahead.”
This group, which has received over $415,000 in donations by August 13, leads all third-party advertisers and is organizing a significant rally at the Alberta Legislature on October 17, just two days before the referendum.
They are planning traditional get-out-the-vote initiatives, including arranging minibuses to transport voters to polling stations.
Keith Wilson operates from his office, which he refers to as the “war room.” (Nathan Gross/CBC)
Polls indicate that support for independence is stronger in rural areas compared to urban centers, prompting the group to focus on Calgary and Edmonton, as well as smaller cities like Lethbridge and Lloydminster.
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The group is also adjusting its social media messaging to appeal to various demographics, targeting young men in their 20s struggling with rent and senior citizens concerned about their grandchildren’s future.
“We will gradually increase our efforts as voting day approaches,” Wilson stated.
Forever Canadian
Last Friday, volunteers at the Forever Canadian campaign office in Edmonton were busy packing lawn signs into wagons and loading them into vehicles.
Organizer Thomas Lukaszuk mentioned that the group has teams “literally in every municipality throughout Alberta,” and plans to visit more towns with Forever Canadian’s “Unity Bus.”
“I believe we are in the second period of a hockey match, but this effort has been ongoing for a year and a month now,” Lukaszuk remarked.
Thomas Lukaszuk engages with individuals at the Forever Canadian campaign office in Edmonton. He stated that the group’s priority is fulfilling sign requests and distributing campaign materials. (Nathan Gross/CBC)
Lukaszuk mentioned that several large rallies organized by Forever Canadian are scheduled for the upcoming months, and the group will continue to distribute lawn signs throughout the province.
The organization claims to have over 18,000 volunteers dedicated to promoting unity. According to Lukaszuk, he envisions the group’s role remaining consistent.
“Should we shift our focus to get out the vote, we certainly have the resources. However, at this phase of the campaign, that is not our main focus,” he stated. “We are concentrating on enhancing Canadian pride, and that appears to be an effective strategy.”
Alberta Prosperity Project/Stay Free Alberta
This organization, which spearheaded the citizen initiative petition aimed at prompting a vote on Alberta’s separation from Canada, sees October as the culmination of extensive efforts.
Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, expressed the intention to utilize advance polls to their fullest potential — even if they are not entirely in agreement with the concept — while also conducting town halls across Alberta.
“Our current focus is on encouraging voter turnout. If we mobilize our supporters effectively, we have a strong chance,” Sylvestre asserted.
Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, believes the next 60 days are crucial after years of effort. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)
A rally is scheduled for August 29 at the Alberta Legislature, which they are calling a “gathering for a province in peril.”
Leading up to the vote, the organization aims to motivate its members to compile a list of friends and neighbors, ensuring they are responsible for getting them to the polls.
Alberta’s Voice
Alberta’s Voice, managed by Stephen Carter, president of Decide Campaigns, currently holds the highest contributions registered for a pro-Confederation campaign, totaling over $87,000.
Carter indicated that Alberta’s Voice intends to launch an “air war” advertising campaign, purchasing radio advertisements in Calgary, Edmonton, and rural Alberta.
“However, our primary challenge has been fundraising, and we must ensure we can compete with the separatists,” Carter stated. “The leading separatist organization has raised four times more funds than we have.”
The group is also concentrating on undecided voters and aims for a 75-25 outcome in favor of remaining in Canada on referendum day.
“Our top priority is to engage with undecided voters,” Carter remarked.
“While they are few in number, their decisions will determine whether we face this issue again or if we can resolve it once and for all.”
Alberta’s Voice is behind the “no to the nine” signs, emphasizing the significance of voter turnout, as low turnout could benefit the pro-separation faction. (Jennifer Keiller/CBC)
The organization plans to launch a campaign college in early September to train volunteers in voter mobilization. It also envisions a “captain system” to involve individuals in emailing and calling others to ensure they go to the polls on election day.
“We aim to sign up 100,000 people through this method,” Carter shared. “This will enable us to significantly enhance overall turnout.”
“The individuals we are targeting may not be the most actively engaged, but they are connected to those who are.”
As the referendum approaches in 60 days, Elections Alberta is also permitting residents to vote via mail — and that deadline is imminent. Special ballot packages must be received by 5 p.m. on October 16.