The El Niño weather phenomenon is projected to strengthen through 2027 and could potentially become the most potent event of its kind, heightening the likelihood of extreme weather patterns in the upcoming year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. During a press conference in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend persists, this El Niño could surpass all previous records monitored over the past four decades.
The UN weather agency emphasized that their forecasts indicate a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by notably warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of assurance is unprecedented, according to the WMO.
A powerful El Niño has the capacity to cause significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature distributions, potentially leading to severe weather occurrences such as typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked, “El Niño is becoming exceptionally intense before our eyes. Scientific evidence unequivocally shows that the world is venturing into unfamiliar territory, which is rapidly heating up.”
El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years, typically lasting up to 12 months and triggering intense precipitation and droughts across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already impacted soft commodity production in tropical regions, contributing to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO noted that El Niño is anticipated to reach its peak later this year but will continue to affect global temperatures into 2027, leading to higher temperature averages.
Saulo highlighted that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning measures in anticipation of the prolonged El Niño effects. She emphasized the organization’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and the humanitarian sector to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.